A recent internal election analysis by ANC KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Secretary Bheki Mtolo has stirred debate within the party, reportedly underscoring former President Jacob Zuma’s enduring influence in the province while portraying President Cyril Ramaphosa as struggling to gain traction.
Although not officially released, the analysis is said to have circulated among senior ANC members. It emphasizes Zuma’s stronghold in KwaZulu-Natal, a province critical to the party’s electoral success. According to insiders, the report attributes Zuma’s popularity to his strong grassroots connections and resonance with local issues, despite his controversial legacy.
“Zuma’s legacy and personal relationships with communities have solidified his role as a pivotal figure in KZN politics,” the analysis reportedly states. It also raises concerns about the rising support for the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, led by Zuma, which poses a potential electoral challenge to the ANC.
In contrast, Mtolo’s assessment of Ramaphosa paints a picture of a leader struggling to connect with KZN voters. The analysis cites perceptions of weak leadership and dissatisfaction with the national government’s handling of critical issues like unemployment and service delivery.
The report has reportedly caused unease within ANC ranks, with members concerned about its implications for the party’s campaign strategy. Some fear the findings could deepen existing factional divisions as the ANC faces increasing pressure from Zuma’s influence and the MK Party’s momentum.
Political analysts warn that neglecting the dynamics in KwaZulu-Natal could jeopardize the ANC’s prospects. “This is a wake-up call for the ANC to address internal divisions and reconnect with its base,” said Professor Bheki Mngomezulu, a political analyst.
The ANC has not yet commented on the leaked analysis, but the findings highlight the mounting challenges facing the party as it prepares for a fiercely contested election season.
