President Cyril Ramaphosa’s control over the ANC is fading as his National Dialogue faces collapse. Former President Thabo Mbeki and several major foundations have withdrawn from the process, raising doubts about its credibility.
The Dialogue was meant to reflect the spirit of 1990s negotiations and align with the 70th anniversary of the Freedom Charter. However, critics argue it has become a taxpayer-funded event with little real impact.
Mbeki had previously criticized the Democratic Alliance (DA) for not joining the Dialogue, calling it a mistake. But now, his foundation, along with others like the Steve Biko Foundation and the Desmond and Leah Tutu Foundation, has pulled out. They cited poor planning and a lack of meaningful engagement as reasons for their withdrawal.
Meanwhile, Ramaphosa’s government has struggled in trade talks with the US, leading to potential 30% tariffs that could hurt South Africa’s manufacturing sector. This could weaken Ramaphosa’s support among trade unions, a key part of his base.
ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula has taken a hardline stance against the US, accusing the DA of “political mischief” for opposing BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) policies abroad. He insists that all parties should promote ANC policies when dealing with foreign nations—a view critics say undermines democratic debate.
The ANC’s decline has accelerated since the formation of the Government of National Unity. Instead of strengthening governance, Ramaphosa faces rebellion within his party, particularly in Gauteng, where alliances with the EFF have led to worsening service delivery and infrastructure failures.
Adding to Ramaphosa’s troubles, the South African Communist Party (SACP), a longtime ally, has announced it will contest future elections independently. Mbalula has warned that SACP members in government could lose their positions if they remain loyal to their party over the ANC.
With Ramaphosa’s term as ANC president ending in 2027, uncertainty looms over his successor. Deputy President Paul Mashatile is a frontrunner but is mired in scandals, including questionable property deals involving family members.
As the ANC weakens, Ramaphosa’s reliance on the National Dialogue to rebuild support has backfired. With key allies abandoning him and international relations strained, his leadership appears more fragile than ever. If U.S. sanctions target individuals, it could further destabilize the ANC’s policies, marking a deeper crisis for the party.
The failure of the National Dialogue may soon be seen as just one symptom of the ANC’s broader decline.