South Africa’s political landscape has reached a historic milestone as the Democratic Alliance (DA) has surpassed the African National Congress (ANC) in a major poll for the first time. According to the Institute of Race Relations (IRR), the DA now holds 30.3% support compared to the ANC’s 29.7%—a narrow lead but a symbolic shift in the country’s politics.
The two parties are currently governing together in a national unity coalition after the ANC failed to secure a majority in the 2024 elections, dropping below 50% for the first time since 1994. The poll also revealed that the DA, historically perceived as a white-led party, has significantly increased its support among Black voters, tripling its share from 5% to 18%.
Key Poll Findings:
- DA surpasses ANC: The DA’s lead, though within the margin of error, reflects growing dissatisfaction with ANC policies, including a proposed VAT increase.
- Rising Black support for DA: The opposition party’s focus on economic issues appears to be resonating with a broader demographic.
- ANC’s continued decline: After a brief rebound following the unity government’s formation, ANC support has dipped below 30%, with voters rejecting its economic policies.
The ANC’s struggles—once commanding 70% of the vote—have historically benefited other Black-led parties, but the DA is now making inroads. Analysts attribute the shift to several factors, including public frustration over the ANC’s push for higher VAT and its contentious diplomatic clashes with the U.S., particularly under former President Donald Trump. These tensions have raised concerns about South Africa’s trade relations and economic stability.
While the GNU was initially seen as a stabilizing force, the ANC’s policy decisions appear to be alienating voters. The DA, meanwhile, is capitalizing on its reputation for pragmatic governance, though its long-term ability to sustain this momentum remains uncertain.
As South Africa navigates a shifting political era, the poll underscores a potential realignment in voter loyalties—one that could redefine the country’s future elections.
