The ANC retained its Ward 57 seat in Nelson Mandela Bay’s by-election this week, but the victory came with warning signs for the ruling party as voter apathy and new political rivals chipped away at its once-dominant support.
While the ANC secured 62% of the vote, this marked a sharp decline from its 75% stronghold in the 2021 local government elections. More strikingly, former President Jacob Zuma’s MK Party—previously seen as a KZN-centric force—matched the EFF at 16% in its first electoral test in the Eastern Cape. Smaller parties like Build One South Africa (BOSA) and Azapo trailed at 3% and under 1%, respectively, in the low-turnout contest where just 26% of registered voters cast ballots, down from 42% in 2021.
A Protest in the Numbers
The by-election, triggered by the death of longtime ANC councillor Thembinkosi Maswana, revealed growing urban discontent. Political analyst Professor Bheki Mngomezulu of Nelson Mandela University noted: “The ANC can’t interpret this as business as usual. The MK Party’s immediate impact and the turnout collapse suggest traditional loyalties are eroding—especially among frustrated young voters.”
Campaigning centered on grinding service delivery failures: illegal dumping sites, sewage overflows, and electricity shortages in Motherwell’s NU8 and NU9 areas. While all parties pledged urgent action, the dismal participation rate hinted at deepening skepticism toward political promises.
ANC’s Cautious Victory Lap
The ruling party framed its win as proof of enduring grassroots trust, with incoming councillor Noloyiso Ndoni vowing to repair water infrastructure and reopen the shuttered Motherwell Library within 100 days. Yet the ANC’s 59/120 council seat majority in the metro now faces mounting pressure from both the EFF and MK’s insurgent campaigns.
2026 Battleground Preview
With urban voters increasingly willing to abandon the ANC—and opposition votes splintering between radical and pragmatic alternatives—analysts predict a volatile race for control of Nelson Mandela Bay in the next local elections. As one Motherwell resident put it: “They all make promises, but we’re still waiting. Maybe next time we’ll speak louder.”
