Amid increasing speculation about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s successor, the African National Congress (ANC) is taking cautious steps to manage internal tensions. There is mounting concern that an uncontrolled feud between ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula and Deputy President Paul Mashatile could cause the ruling party to split. Allegedly, high-ranking ANC NEC members are attempting behind the scenes to calm tensions and avert a polarising leadership race that could repeat the vicious fights of yesteryear.
The subject of succession has resurfaced as a source of tension within Luthuli House, given that Ramaphosa is anticipated to step down following his second term. Mashatile has been a leading candidate for the presidency for quite some time; he is now the republic’s deputy president. With the support of the provinces, especially Gauteng and portions of Mpumalanga, he has amassed an impressive foundation of support.
But Mbalula, in his role as secretary-general, has been more outspoken about his influence, painting himself as an ally in the fight for party discipline and revitalisation. A destabilising “bloodbath” that could intensify current factionalism has been voiced in response to the potential of a head-to-head combat.
The party, according to some NEC members, is already in a precarious position due to falling electoral support; another succession struggle would only serve to further undermine faith in the party and its leadership. Rumour has it that there are already plans afoot to promote consensus-building, with demands for a methodical procedure to prevent the blatant animosity that characterised past debates, such as the infamous Ramaphosa-Zuma impasse.
A “unity slate” is being considered again, but whether Mashatile and Mbalula would be willing to compromise is still up in the air. An analysis of the ANC’s past is necessary. An anonymous NEC member warned reporters that the entire organisation, not just individuals, would suffer if factionalism were to erupt during the succession process.
The ANC is under intense pressure to regain credibility in anticipation of the local government elections in 2026, so the stakes are enormous. Mashatile and Mbalula are both important personalities who will determine the party’s trajectory going forward, but their animosity could derail the organisation as a whole.
The NEC seems intent on avoiding a potentially disastrous confrontation for the time being. The fate of the party and its members’ aspirations are precariously balanced, therefore it is unclear whether unity will ultimately prevail.
