Political analysts argue that a backroom deal to avoid a leadership contest will not be enough to save the African National Congress (ANC) from its declining popularity.
This comes after reports that Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula and Deputy President Paul Mashatile are negotiating an agreement for the party’s 2027 elective conference. The deal would see Mashatile become party president, with Mbalula as his deputy, avoiding a divisive internal battle.
Some in the party believe this “political management” will prevent damaging factional fights. However, analysts are deeply skeptical.
Political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast stated that the ANC’s problems run much deeper than internal unity. He cited the “institutionalization of corruption,” slow service delivery, and cadre deployment as key issues that have permanently damaged the party’s brand. He believes restoring the ANC’s glory is now a “mission impossible.”
Breakfast also questioned the motives behind the deal, suggesting it is more about personal ambition than saving the party. “This is about themselves securing two powerful positions, not about the ANC,” he said.
Furthermore, analysts note that the proposed leaders come with their own baggage. Mashatile has faced allegations of dishonesty about his property ownership and other questionable conduct, which analysts say makes him a poor choice to rehabilitate the party’s image.
Another analyst, Andre Duvenhage, warned that a Mashatile presidency could pull the ANC toward more radical politics and a continuation of corrupt practices. He also expressed concern over Mashatile’s perceived links to former president Jacob Zuma and his MK party, suggesting this could create an unstable government.
The report also mentions billionaire Patrice Motsepe as a potential alternative candidate, but analysts doubt that any single leader can overcome the ANC’s deeply tarnished reputation.
The succession battle also poses a problem for current President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is still dealing with the unresolved Phala Phala scandal. Analysts suggest he is becoming a “lame duck” president, more focused on party unity than on governing the country effectively.
The overall consensus is that a leadership pact may create temporary internal peace for the ANC, but it will not address the fundamental issues causing the party to lose public trust.