South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) is on the verge of collapse as tensions escalate over a proposed 0.5% VAT increase. The deadlock has forced the ANC to urgently reassess its coalition strategy, with senior leaders exploring whether they can govern without relying on the DA—or turning to the EFF and MK Party.
The ANC’s internal calculations reveal that, alongside its current GNU partners (excluding the DA), it holds 201 seats in the 400-member National Assembly—just enough for a simple majority. This has sparked discussions within the party about the possibility of sidelining the DA while avoiding alliances with the more unpredictable EFF and MKP.
The Numbers Game
With 159 seats of its own, the ANC could secure a working majority by partnering with smaller parties like the IFP, Patriotic Alliance, and Good Party, which together bring the total to 201. Some within the party are also eyeing ActionSA’s six seats, which would push the coalition to 207—a more comfortable margin.
“The ANC doesn’t need the DA, EFF, or MK Party to govern,” a senior ANC leader said. “With the current GNU partners, we already have the numbers.”
Avoiding the DA and Populist Parties
The ANC’s reluctance to work with the EFF or MKP stems from concerns over their radical policies and leadership styles. Julius Malema’s EFF and Jacob Zuma’s MKP are seen as volatile partners, with their demands likely to destabilize governance.
“Trying to manage Malema, Zuma, and the DA’s Helen Zille in one government would be chaotic,” an ANC NEC member said. “Their egos and conflicting agendas would make cooperation impossible.”
Instead, the ANC is considering ActionSA as a pragmatic alternative, despite its leader Herman Mashaba’s past criticisms of the party. However, bringing ActionSA on board could strain relations with other coalition partners.
Emergency Talks and a Possible Breakup
As the VAT standoff intensifies, ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula is leading emergency negotiations with GNU partners and even the EFF—a move seen as testing the waters for a post-DA coalition.
The DA opposes the VAT hike, arguing it would hurt low-income households, while the ANC insists it is necessary for fiscal stability. If no compromise is reached, the ANC may proceed without the DA, reshaping South Africa’s political landscape.
Risks of a DA Exit
Dropping the DA could give the ANC more control but would require careful management of smaller parties, which may demand concessions in exchange for support. Meanwhile, the DA, EFF, and MKP together hold 199 seats—enough to mount strong opposition, though their ideological differences make a united front unlikely.
For now, the ANC is publicly committed to the GNU but privately preparing for a possible breakup. The VAT dispute has become a defining test of the coalition’s survival—and the ANC’s next move could determine South Africa’s political direction for years to come.
